Having said that, the vaccine could have a tremendous impact on women in the developed world. In the short term, it would reduce the incidence of serious abnormal Pap smears. There's a lot of anxiety as well as morbidity that goes with those. It would also reduce the number of follow-ups needed for abnormal Pap smears and the number of surgeries needed for high-grade dysplasia.

One of the ironies is that the impact of the vaccine will be felt sooner in the developed countries than in the developing world. That's because changes in the cervix occur relatively soon after infection. Let's say that today you could implement world-wide vaccination. What would happen five years from now? In the developed world, there would be a reduction in abnormal Pap smears and a reduction in need for surgeries to treat high-grade dysplasia. In the developing world, the impact will be zero. That's because cervical cancers don't occur until 15 to 25 years after you get infected. So actually, you will see no benefit until you get out to that time. It's one of the "deficiencies" of a purely preventive vaccine.

One more point is that you won't be able to eliminate cervical cancer screening because the vaccine will only target a subset of the viruses that are implicated in cervical cancer.